A generation of change, a lifetime of difference? Model lifetime analysis of changes in the British Welfare State since 1979
Martin Evans and Lewis Willams
Department of Social Policy and Social Work, University of Oxford
Contact Email:   martin.evanssocres.ox.ac.uk

This paper introduces research that will be published in a book, ‘A Generation of Change, A Lifetime of Difference? British social policy since 1979’, in September 2009. The research employs a series of lifetime simulations to examine the changes in taxation and social security provision since 1979 in Britain, using the Lifetime Opportunities and Incentives Simulation (LOIS) to profile hypothetical individuals who live their whole lives under the rules in place at three points in time: 1979, 1997 and 2008. These three years are taken to represent the cumulative changes in policy that have been taken by three differing political approaches to social policy. 1979 represents the culmination of ‘Old Labour’ – a left social democratic approach; 1997 represents the culmination of 18 years of right-wing Conservative governments under the Prime Ministers, Margaret Thatcher and John Major and 2008 represents the culmination of 11 years of ‘New Labour’ under Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. Three hypothetical families are used to produce lifetime profiles and each is based on contemporary levels of earnings for each year: the Meades are median earners, The Moores are twice median earners and the Lowes earn 50 percent of median earnings. The paper outlines the methodology of ‘model lifetime’ and demonstrates the differences in inputs and outputs from taxes and benefits for each model family over their hypothetical lifetime for both comparison years and shows outcomes for poverty.

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